An Electoral Tie In November?
Now I’m not saying that this will happen, but a tie in November’s election could THEORETICALLY happen. First, let’s assume that Romney wins the Republican nomination, which is beginning to seem more and more like a given. Next, let’s take a look at the states that Obama/Romney should almost be guaranteed to win…
So the states that should be up for grabs in the 2012 election, the swing states, are: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Except for Missouri, Barack Obama won every single one of these states, destroying John McCain and doubling his electoral total, 359-179 (270 is the magic number to win the Presidency).
When predicting electoral results, you must note that the 2012 and 2008 version of Barack Obama are very different. I don’t pretend to be an expert in American politics, especially considering the whole Canadian thing. I’ve only had a vested interest in two electoral campaigns in my whole life, the 2011 Canadian Federal Election and the aforementioned 2008 Presidential one. Still, I love prognosticating, and messing around with electoral predicting tools like the one I’ve used to come up with these maps.
Once again, I’m not saying this WILL happen, but if Obama and Romney (or whoever wins the nomination) manages to maintain control of the states that they should have won, and the swing states fall a certain way, it could result in the first modern-era tie in the Electoral College. If Obama grabs Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and the Romney/other nominee grabs Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, it will actually happen. The effect of a 269-269 tie (depicted below), with 270 electoral votes needing to be won to win, starts becoming quite confusing. To explain the potential scenario, I’ll leave it up to the experts.
I just wanted to hear your thoughts on how likely this potential scenario could be. If you’re American, or have a better grasp of American electoral politics than I do, please sound off in the comments below.